I'm always very surprised by how fixated people are on equity markets, and how little attention they pay to the fixed income markets. As far as I am concerned, spread differentials in bond markets are like the flight of a bird that is trying to tell me something about the weather to come. I'd be silly not to heed its warning.
This morning the differential between Irish bonds and German bunds widened once more. But then differentials between the bonds of peripheral Europe by relation to core Europe have been widening steadily for quite some time now, and people just shrug their shoulders. They are busy reading Alice in Wonderland.
To me, this just means one thing: as currency, the Euro is a political reality, but an economic fallacy. The problem is that there is no constitutional mechanism to exclude a country from the eurozone. That being the case, three scenarios are possible.
The first is that peripheral Europe willingly abandons the Euro, so that it may devalue and restructure its debt. Yet, if it does not shrink the weight of the state machine to realistically sustainable levels and does not reform labour laws, the effort will prove fruitless.
Not being able to throw any country out of the common currency, Germany may decide on its own that it is tired of the continual mess, in which case it may readopt the Deutsch Mark and leave the rest of the fellows to sort themselves out.
Lastly, in order to maintain its export market, Germany may take the political decision to continue to pay for the reverie, which would be good, for example, for the Greeks, because that would enable their hairdressers to continue to retire at 50 and their dead citizens to go on claiming old-age pension forever.
So, when I look at the widening bond spreads and consider the three scenarios, I remain extremely pessimistic about the Euro. So much so that I no longer care to listen to the press conferences of the European Central Bank. And why should I? We are not facing a monetary policy problem. We are staring at a problem of fiscal disarray, economic inefficiency and plain corruption. Therefore Jean-Claude Trichet has become totally irrelevant to me. Even when he tries to speak his best English.
Tuesday, 31 August 2010
NO, HE CAN'T
Yesterday he was going to address the nation from the Rose Garden. After meeting with his economic advisers. Expectations were running high. Television networks kept announcing that he would be coming out at any moment. They had to repeat it over and over, because he was nowhere to be seen. The waiting was unbearable. I thought to myself that this was a bad sign.
Then, he did come out and kept having trouble with the microphone. Another bad sign, I thought. Finally he began to speak, but had to start over several times. I could sense that he was very tense. Another bad sign, I continued to think to myself. What did he say? A bunch of nothing. So, the stock markets were once more disappointed and started to sell off. I fail to understand how seasoned investors still believe in fairy tales, but that's another story.
Well, I shouldn't be unfair towards him. He did say something. He repeated the mantra that he has been stuttering for months: throw money at the economy. He just doesn't understand that, by doing that, is just delaying the final countdown. He was also very conspicuous by what he avoided to say: like a good socialist, he is definitely going to increase taxes. You could read it between the lines. Always the same recipe: go for the income side of the balance sheet, don't address the expense column.
The present crisis is nothing but a credit bubble. Cheap and easily available credit leveraged the economy to a point that individuals began to realise that, although, at some point, they had indeed felt wealthy, their wealth was illusionary and they were just indebted. What was more, the equity they held was nowhere nearly enough to cover their liabilities. Mark-to-maket accounting proved that. On a national level, two very expensive wars had also caused the federal debt to balloon. Do you solve your debt problems by creating more debt? Idiotic. You can only solve it by deflating the bubble.
Contrary to what many think, Mr. Bernanke does know what he is doing. I have read those shrewd little eyes. He has worked it out that, by maintaining interest rates at historical lows and fomenting a little inflation, say 4% (remember money printing, monetisation of debt?), in time the balloon will empty by itself. In fact, that amounts to negative interest rates. He is putting his finger up the rear end of every American, and the average American is sporting a silly smile on his lips. Being a specialist on the Great Depression, Bernanke is only terrified that Mr. Obama, with his little socialist formula of tax and spend, will repeat the mistakes that led to that terrible period.
So, Mr. Bernanke, you can. No, Mr. Obama, you can't. And the reason you can't is that you know nothing. The November mid-term elections will show that.
Then, he did come out and kept having trouble with the microphone. Another bad sign, I thought. Finally he began to speak, but had to start over several times. I could sense that he was very tense. Another bad sign, I continued to think to myself. What did he say? A bunch of nothing. So, the stock markets were once more disappointed and started to sell off. I fail to understand how seasoned investors still believe in fairy tales, but that's another story.
Well, I shouldn't be unfair towards him. He did say something. He repeated the mantra that he has been stuttering for months: throw money at the economy. He just doesn't understand that, by doing that, is just delaying the final countdown. He was also very conspicuous by what he avoided to say: like a good socialist, he is definitely going to increase taxes. You could read it between the lines. Always the same recipe: go for the income side of the balance sheet, don't address the expense column.
The present crisis is nothing but a credit bubble. Cheap and easily available credit leveraged the economy to a point that individuals began to realise that, although, at some point, they had indeed felt wealthy, their wealth was illusionary and they were just indebted. What was more, the equity they held was nowhere nearly enough to cover their liabilities. Mark-to-maket accounting proved that. On a national level, two very expensive wars had also caused the federal debt to balloon. Do you solve your debt problems by creating more debt? Idiotic. You can only solve it by deflating the bubble.
Contrary to what many think, Mr. Bernanke does know what he is doing. I have read those shrewd little eyes. He has worked it out that, by maintaining interest rates at historical lows and fomenting a little inflation, say 4% (remember money printing, monetisation of debt?), in time the balloon will empty by itself. In fact, that amounts to negative interest rates. He is putting his finger up the rear end of every American, and the average American is sporting a silly smile on his lips. Being a specialist on the Great Depression, Bernanke is only terrified that Mr. Obama, with his little socialist formula of tax and spend, will repeat the mistakes that led to that terrible period.
So, Mr. Bernanke, you can. No, Mr. Obama, you can't. And the reason you can't is that you know nothing. The November mid-term elections will show that.
Monday, 30 August 2010
THE ZIMBABWEAN SOLUTION
Many years ago, Robert Mugabe decided to reward his cronies for their war efforts. The fact that they had won no war was neither here nor there. The truth of the matter is that, after imposing some of the harshest sanctions imaginable, the West finally managed to force Ian Smith to surrender at the Lancaster House. But that's history. So you may put on it whichever spin may fit your vision of the world.
No better way for Mugabe to achieve his purpose than to allow the self-styled war veterans to kill white farmers and rob them of their land. There's an efficient political methodology for you! It worked.
Once in possession of all those farms, those no-goodniks had two problems: they didn't know the first thing about farming and they didn't have capital to start operations. The first problem is easily overlooked. Who is going to hold it against you for having stolen a car and not knowing how to drive? The second one seemed a little insurmountable at first, but Zimbabweans are resourceful people. The government confiscated the foreign reserves of private companies.
The problem with your neighbour's pocket is that it is never as deep as you wish it to be. So, when there was no more money in the kitty, Mugabe looked to the governor of the central bank for some creativity. After all, the party faithful have to be paid to continue to vote for you at every election.
If my memory serves me right, the then governor of the central bank was a whiz-kid called Gono. Having listened to his master's voice, he promptly oiled up the printing presses, which soon were working at atomic speeds. Once more, money was flowing freely.
For a while, some people, those that go through life in a more distracted fashion, even started to feel a wealth effect. That too came to end. According to some sources, last year inflation reached some 500 billion percent, and the currency had to be abolished.
One more piece of useful information. Under Smith, life expectancy was 60 years. Under Mugabe, it has gone down to 44. By contrast, levels of poverty have increased astronomically.
Zimbabwe would be only an episode in History, if it weren't for the fact that it has suddenly become very relevant. Recently, Julius Malema, leader of the ANC Youth League, went to Harare to undertake a thorough two-day study of this model of economic progress with the purpose of applying it in South Africa.
It shows you how a little unintelligent ballot box and a proper printing press are able to go a long way into solving just about every human problem.
No better way for Mugabe to achieve his purpose than to allow the self-styled war veterans to kill white farmers and rob them of their land. There's an efficient political methodology for you! It worked.
Once in possession of all those farms, those no-goodniks had two problems: they didn't know the first thing about farming and they didn't have capital to start operations. The first problem is easily overlooked. Who is going to hold it against you for having stolen a car and not knowing how to drive? The second one seemed a little insurmountable at first, but Zimbabweans are resourceful people. The government confiscated the foreign reserves of private companies.
The problem with your neighbour's pocket is that it is never as deep as you wish it to be. So, when there was no more money in the kitty, Mugabe looked to the governor of the central bank for some creativity. After all, the party faithful have to be paid to continue to vote for you at every election.
If my memory serves me right, the then governor of the central bank was a whiz-kid called Gono. Having listened to his master's voice, he promptly oiled up the printing presses, which soon were working at atomic speeds. Once more, money was flowing freely.
For a while, some people, those that go through life in a more distracted fashion, even started to feel a wealth effect. That too came to end. According to some sources, last year inflation reached some 500 billion percent, and the currency had to be abolished.
One more piece of useful information. Under Smith, life expectancy was 60 years. Under Mugabe, it has gone down to 44. By contrast, levels of poverty have increased astronomically.
Zimbabwe would be only an episode in History, if it weren't for the fact that it has suddenly become very relevant. Recently, Julius Malema, leader of the ANC Youth League, went to Harare to undertake a thorough two-day study of this model of economic progress with the purpose of applying it in South Africa.
It shows you how a little unintelligent ballot box and a proper printing press are able to go a long way into solving just about every human problem.
Sunday, 29 August 2010
HYPOCRISY
I find it incredible that an institution that condoned the enslavement of African and South American populations, that had thousands of Jews burnt alive, that sold indulgences to the gullible, that kept conspicuously silent about Nazism and that turned a blind eye on paedophile priests should now claim for itself the right to stand on the high moral ground.
If the Pope is so concerned about the three hundred Romanian gypsies being returned to their homeland, why doesn't he invite them to come and squat right in the middle of St. Peter's Square?
If the Pope is so concerned about the three hundred Romanian gypsies being returned to their homeland, why doesn't he invite them to come and squat right in the middle of St. Peter's Square?
RELAXED
This morning, at the local coffee bar, an acquaintance of mine asked me in a subdued voice whether I knew that Tchaikovsky was gay. I confessed unashamedly that I did not.
On the way back, I thought a great deal about the matter. By the time I put the key to my front door, I was already feeling quite relaxed about the whole thing.
Why should it concern me? I never turn my back on his music...
On the way back, I thought a great deal about the matter. By the time I put the key to my front door, I was already feeling quite relaxed about the whole thing.
Why should it concern me? I never turn my back on his music...
IGNORANCE
Last week the Vatican compared France's repatriation of some illegal gypsy immigrants to the Holocaust.
It shows you just how ignorant I am. I was totally unaware that Auschwitz is in Romania.
It shows you just how ignorant I am. I was totally unaware that Auschwitz is in Romania.
Saturday, 28 August 2010
HARSH SENTENCE
Sometimes I just feel I'm beginning to find it it difficult to understand the world. Mind you, I'm not saying that it is the fault of the world. The world does what the world wants to do. In all probability, the shortcoming is on my side. Maybe fast change is becoming too much for my ageing brain.
Take this incident in South Africa. A Zulu prince is sentenced to three years in prison for killing two people while driving under the influence of alcohol. Do you find that fair? I don't.
First of all, if he only killed two people (peace be to their souls!), why is he getting three years? He should have got only two. Three years is more like the kind of sentence you would impose on a white farmer for refusing to sell his land to the ANC.
Then, there is the question of status. Is there no longer any respect for royalty? Where in world have you heard of sending a prince to jail? What's more, a Zulu prince?
I'm prepared to go along with the withdrawal of his driving licence, but I feel that finding the dead people guilty for being on the road at the time that the prince was driving would have been far more appropriate.
Take this incident in South Africa. A Zulu prince is sentenced to three years in prison for killing two people while driving under the influence of alcohol. Do you find that fair? I don't.
First of all, if he only killed two people (peace be to their souls!), why is he getting three years? He should have got only two. Three years is more like the kind of sentence you would impose on a white farmer for refusing to sell his land to the ANC.
Then, there is the question of status. Is there no longer any respect for royalty? Where in world have you heard of sending a prince to jail? What's more, a Zulu prince?
I'm prepared to go along with the withdrawal of his driving licence, but I feel that finding the dead people guilty for being on the road at the time that the prince was driving would have been far more appropriate.
Friday, 27 August 2010
ELECTION
I have just read about a Brazilian prostitute who is standing for election as member of parliament.
Well, I want to take this opportunity to wish her all the best! I hope that she gets elected. She looks bright, so I'm sure it won't take her more than a day to feel at home.
Well, I want to take this opportunity to wish her all the best! I hope that she gets elected. She looks bright, so I'm sure it won't take her more than a day to feel at home.
WANT TO KNOW
All dictatorships are odious. The concept of one man or of a group of men enslaving a whole nation for purposes of self-gratification, of some kind or another, is beyond human comprehension. It can only be derived from primitive animal instincts that should have ended with the demise of the Stone Age.
Over the centuries Man has evolved to become more sophisticated in his ways. So, today just about everybody frowns upon the concept of dictatorship, and, except for a few pockets of backward-looking creatures, very few people would accept to live under such a regime. But what I want to know is how do you deal with governments which pose as democracies, but, in fact, are nothing but veiled dictatorships?
Over the centuries Man has evolved to become more sophisticated in his ways. So, today just about everybody frowns upon the concept of dictatorship, and, except for a few pockets of backward-looking creatures, very few people would accept to live under such a regime. But what I want to know is how do you deal with governments which pose as democracies, but, in fact, are nothing but veiled dictatorships?
DURESS
I can confirm it. It's official. The Swiss government has reached a tax agreement with the US government.
And I can also hear you mumbling to yourself: there he goes again! What is so unusual about two governments signing agreements on any matter upon which they may wish to agree? It happens all the time.
Yes, you are right. Nonetheless, there is something about this particular one that will leave you livid. According to Bloomberg, the US Internal Revenue Service is expected to drop a lawsuit against the Swiss bank UBS in return for the disclosure of data on some 4,450 US clients who held accounts in Switzerland.
I thought blackmail was a crime. Or is it only a crime when it is committed by an individual? I also believed that contracts negotiated under duress were null and void. Or does that not apply to treaties signed between two states?
Did I expect this? Yes, I did. These days I have got accustomed to this kind of behaviour from the US. It's sad, but it is the reality. What's more, I'm prepared to predict today that, if they continue to go down this road, I can envisage a time, in a not so distant future, when New York will no longer be the financial capital of the world. You will get better terms from the Russian Mafia.
On the other hand, I had always thought that the Swiss were known for their bank secrecy and their precision watches. Now that bank secrecy is gone, if the watches stop keeping time, all that they will be left with is their cheese. And, as everybody knows, Swiss cheese is full of holes.
And I can also hear you mumbling to yourself: there he goes again! What is so unusual about two governments signing agreements on any matter upon which they may wish to agree? It happens all the time.
Yes, you are right. Nonetheless, there is something about this particular one that will leave you livid. According to Bloomberg, the US Internal Revenue Service is expected to drop a lawsuit against the Swiss bank UBS in return for the disclosure of data on some 4,450 US clients who held accounts in Switzerland.
I thought blackmail was a crime. Or is it only a crime when it is committed by an individual? I also believed that contracts negotiated under duress were null and void. Or does that not apply to treaties signed between two states?
Did I expect this? Yes, I did. These days I have got accustomed to this kind of behaviour from the US. It's sad, but it is the reality. What's more, I'm prepared to predict today that, if they continue to go down this road, I can envisage a time, in a not so distant future, when New York will no longer be the financial capital of the world. You will get better terms from the Russian Mafia.
On the other hand, I had always thought that the Swiss were known for their bank secrecy and their precision watches. Now that bank secrecy is gone, if the watches stop keeping time, all that they will be left with is their cheese. And, as everybody knows, Swiss cheese is full of holes.
Wednesday, 25 August 2010
CREDIT
Allow me to take you this morning on short trip to never-never.
Lately, your daily routine has been getting the best of you. Rising at dawn, going to work at rush hour, having to deal with jealous colleagues, facing an unreasonable boss, returning home at rush hour, only to repeat it all the next day. You feel psychologically drained and physically exhausted. Sometimes, at work, you even take your eyes off the computer screen and momentarily let them wander into the landscape outside, only to feel immediately guilty for having afforded yourself the luxury of daydreaming. In that fleeting instant, you wish it could all be different. But how? You can't just quit your job. How would you manage?
Suddenly, as you steal another passing moment from your boss in order to glance outside your prison cell, this time without guilt, you realise that, on account of a public holiday, you could have yourself a very nice long weekend.. Thank God for religion! Where would we be without it? At first, you feel a surge of delight, similar to the one you experience every time you consume a whole slab of chocolate. Then reality sets in and you come back to earth. The truth is that you are bit short of cash and it's no fun spending a weekend alone. This time you go back to facing the computer screen with anger, as if it was the sole cause of your misfortunes.
That evening, at home, you mull your options. Of course, you could stay at home and relax. After all, a man's home is his castle, but your minute apartment feels more like the dungeon than the castle itself. You quickly discard the idea. How could you even have entertained it! It is at that point that you remember that you have a gold credit card and a bosom friend that, for ages now, you have been wanting to get to know better, but who has, ever so slyly, in a very feminine way, always escaped your pedestrian approaches. You pick up your cell phone and shoot from the hip. How would she like to spend a long weekend in the Middle East? Unsurprisingly, she says yes. You have finally risen to her expectations.
Your business class flight turns out to be impeccable, and your seven star hotel is straight out of Arabian fiction. The food is superb and your companion, although not very intelligent, reveals herself to be most stimulating. In fact, unimaginably so. You are on top of the world and start to feel as if your boss has finally begun to work for you. So much so that you could even become unreasonable towards him and treat him like the worm he is. To show how appreciative you are, you brandish your gold credit card ferociously and buy your female friend a pair of diamond earrings and an exotic outfit that will serve as souvenir of the time spent in never-land.
Alas, the flight back is a bit bumpy, and you companion becomes even less talkative, which is unhelpful. At the airport, as you separate, she has that same far-away look she had the day that you met her for the first time. You feel as if you were just the magic carpet that enabled her to fulfil a dream that perhaps she would have never achieved. You shrug it off and catch a taxi home.
Having reached your dungeon, you unpack your belongings and begin to add up the credit card slips. For the first time, you start to see real stars. Many more than those the hotel in the Middle East sported. How on earth are you going to pay for all this? Well, you have another credit card that could save you for a while, but you will definitely have to take a second mortgage on your apartment. You are now in deep financial trouble.
On Monday, as you walk into the office, you greet your boss sheepishly. You dare not take your eyes off the computer screen. The landscape outside does not interest you one iota. You are back to reality. Routine is your world.
That's what credit is about. It creates an illusion of wealth and power. Yet, it is short-lived. And, when you come down to earth, pain awaits you. Mercilessly.
I leave you to transpose my fairy tale to the world of macro economics.
Lately, your daily routine has been getting the best of you. Rising at dawn, going to work at rush hour, having to deal with jealous colleagues, facing an unreasonable boss, returning home at rush hour, only to repeat it all the next day. You feel psychologically drained and physically exhausted. Sometimes, at work, you even take your eyes off the computer screen and momentarily let them wander into the landscape outside, only to feel immediately guilty for having afforded yourself the luxury of daydreaming. In that fleeting instant, you wish it could all be different. But how? You can't just quit your job. How would you manage?
Suddenly, as you steal another passing moment from your boss in order to glance outside your prison cell, this time without guilt, you realise that, on account of a public holiday, you could have yourself a very nice long weekend.. Thank God for religion! Where would we be without it? At first, you feel a surge of delight, similar to the one you experience every time you consume a whole slab of chocolate. Then reality sets in and you come back to earth. The truth is that you are bit short of cash and it's no fun spending a weekend alone. This time you go back to facing the computer screen with anger, as if it was the sole cause of your misfortunes.
That evening, at home, you mull your options. Of course, you could stay at home and relax. After all, a man's home is his castle, but your minute apartment feels more like the dungeon than the castle itself. You quickly discard the idea. How could you even have entertained it! It is at that point that you remember that you have a gold credit card and a bosom friend that, for ages now, you have been wanting to get to know better, but who has, ever so slyly, in a very feminine way, always escaped your pedestrian approaches. You pick up your cell phone and shoot from the hip. How would she like to spend a long weekend in the Middle East? Unsurprisingly, she says yes. You have finally risen to her expectations.
Your business class flight turns out to be impeccable, and your seven star hotel is straight out of Arabian fiction. The food is superb and your companion, although not very intelligent, reveals herself to be most stimulating. In fact, unimaginably so. You are on top of the world and start to feel as if your boss has finally begun to work for you. So much so that you could even become unreasonable towards him and treat him like the worm he is. To show how appreciative you are, you brandish your gold credit card ferociously and buy your female friend a pair of diamond earrings and an exotic outfit that will serve as souvenir of the time spent in never-land.
Alas, the flight back is a bit bumpy, and you companion becomes even less talkative, which is unhelpful. At the airport, as you separate, she has that same far-away look she had the day that you met her for the first time. You feel as if you were just the magic carpet that enabled her to fulfil a dream that perhaps she would have never achieved. You shrug it off and catch a taxi home.
Having reached your dungeon, you unpack your belongings and begin to add up the credit card slips. For the first time, you start to see real stars. Many more than those the hotel in the Middle East sported. How on earth are you going to pay for all this? Well, you have another credit card that could save you for a while, but you will definitely have to take a second mortgage on your apartment. You are now in deep financial trouble.
On Monday, as you walk into the office, you greet your boss sheepishly. You dare not take your eyes off the computer screen. The landscape outside does not interest you one iota. You are back to reality. Routine is your world.
That's what credit is about. It creates an illusion of wealth and power. Yet, it is short-lived. And, when you come down to earth, pain awaits you. Mercilessly.
I leave you to transpose my fairy tale to the world of macro economics.
Tuesday, 24 August 2010
DEAR JULIUS
I have been an avid follower of your pronouncements for quite a long time. Some of them are quite original. Others, not so much. But then, granted, I can't expect you to be reinventing the wheel at every step. All the same, I find that there is a lot of depth in your thought. So much so that, when I try to peer into it, all I can discern is darkness. That's how deep it is.
Recently I have watched with interest your calls for the nationalisation of the South African mines. In fact, I am waiting for their share prices to reach junk status on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange before I start buying them. You, Julius Malema, should do the same.
As for the word nationalisation, after we own the lot, we can safely exclude it from our dictionary. How's that for an intelligent suggestion?
Recently I have watched with interest your calls for the nationalisation of the South African mines. In fact, I am waiting for their share prices to reach junk status on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange before I start buying them. You, Julius Malema, should do the same.
As for the word nationalisation, after we own the lot, we can safely exclude it from our dictionary. How's that for an intelligent suggestion?
THE MOON
There has been a theory going around for quite a while, according to which you could profit from the stock market by following the lunar phases. They have even devised an algorithm that purports to make it easy for you to do it or something to that effect.
What utter rubbish! I have never heard anything more idiotic! It stands to reason that, if everybody bought on new moon, there would be no sellers on the market at that point, and, if everybody sold on full moon, conversely there would be no buyers. For a market to exist at any time, there have to be two contrarians. You don't have to be Einstein to work that out. Human nature is not reducible to a mathematical formula, and, if it were, it would not be worthwhile being human.
As far as I can tell, full moon nights are only good if you can take your beloved for a long walk on the beach and whisper bewitching words into her ear. And if, at that point, you are at a complete loss for words, I'm afraid no algorithm can save you.
What utter rubbish! I have never heard anything more idiotic! It stands to reason that, if everybody bought on new moon, there would be no sellers on the market at that point, and, if everybody sold on full moon, conversely there would be no buyers. For a market to exist at any time, there have to be two contrarians. You don't have to be Einstein to work that out. Human nature is not reducible to a mathematical formula, and, if it were, it would not be worthwhile being human.
As far as I can tell, full moon nights are only good if you can take your beloved for a long walk on the beach and whisper bewitching words into her ear. And if, at that point, you are at a complete loss for words, I'm afraid no algorithm can save you.
Monday, 23 August 2010
SELFLESS INTEREST
In life, not everything is always as it seems. When you are young you are fairly gullible. As you get older, your hearing becomes more refined, and you are less likely to be taken in by heavenly-sounding, but nonetheless empty rhetoric.
Now, whenever I hear a politician claim that is has got his country's interest at heart, I earnestly believe he is in an adulterous relationship with his bank manager. Either that or he is trying very hard to emulate some dictator he worshipped as an adolescent. Or both, which is not at all that unusual.
Whatever the circumstance, should you start hearing the sweet sound of violins in the distance, don't you believe that you are being invited to dance the waltz. It may be that, without you being aware, you are simply being rocked to sleep, ever so gently.
Why is it that now, whenever I hear a politician, the image that comes to my mind is that of a second-hand car salesman?
Now, whenever I hear a politician claim that is has got his country's interest at heart, I earnestly believe he is in an adulterous relationship with his bank manager. Either that or he is trying very hard to emulate some dictator he worshipped as an adolescent. Or both, which is not at all that unusual.
Whatever the circumstance, should you start hearing the sweet sound of violins in the distance, don't you believe that you are being invited to dance the waltz. It may be that, without you being aware, you are simply being rocked to sleep, ever so gently.
Why is it that now, whenever I hear a politician, the image that comes to my mind is that of a second-hand car salesman?
Sunday, 22 August 2010
WHALES
More State, be it on the Left or on the Right, always leads to an inevitable loss of personal freedom and, in many cases, even to enslavement of some kind or another.
That being said, I have never understood the attraction that some people feel for the abyss. The same way I still find it a mystery why some whales are driven to commit suicide on the beach.
That being said, I have never understood the attraction that some people feel for the abyss. The same way I still find it a mystery why some whales are driven to commit suicide on the beach.
AUSTRALIAN ELECTIONS
As I write this morning, Australia is in a political limbo. Despite a massive swing away from Labour, it is likely that, by doing some horse-trading with independent candidates, socialist Julia Gillard could still hold on to power by the skin of her teeth.
It seems obvious that Australia is still largely crocodile country, and what is so funny about it is that the brain of a crocodile only weights eight grams.
It seems obvious that Australia is still largely crocodile country, and what is so funny about it is that the brain of a crocodile only weights eight grams.
Friday, 20 August 2010
CROCODILES
It's getting absolutely sickening, I mean for people to pretend that animals can predict the outcome of human events. If they were able to that, they wouldn't be animal or even human. They would be superhuman. Like, if God had meant for people to smoke, He would have given them chimneys on top of their heads. The fact is that He hasn't.
In Australia, a crocodile has chosen a chicken with the caricature of Julia Gillard above it. This would apparently mean that she will be re-elected tomorrow.
Well, after reading about it in the press, I took the trouble of watching the actual clip, and I wasn't particularly impressed. Having lived in Africa for many years and having observed their behaviour, I know that crocodiles aren't very picky about what they eat. In fact, they'll snap at anything. And when I say anything, I mean anything. Disgusting!
I would hope that Australians are more intelligent.
In Australia, a crocodile has chosen a chicken with the caricature of Julia Gillard above it. This would apparently mean that she will be re-elected tomorrow.
Well, after reading about it in the press, I took the trouble of watching the actual clip, and I wasn't particularly impressed. Having lived in Africa for many years and having observed their behaviour, I know that crocodiles aren't very picky about what they eat. In fact, they'll snap at anything. And when I say anything, I mean anything. Disgusting!
I would hope that Australians are more intelligent.
PRAYER
Every time I settle down for a quick prayer I always spare a thought for President Zuma who has five mothers-in-law.
I also never forget President Clinton who tried very hard, but couldn't.
Bless their hearts!
I also never forget President Clinton who tried very hard, but couldn't.
Bless their hearts!
Thursday, 19 August 2010
REPUBLIC
I have just been made aware that the Australian Prime-Minister has threatened to change the country into a republic. What? The Atheistic Republic of Australia?
Ms. Gillard, you just don't have a clue, do you? Next you will probably announce that you want to marry Hugo Chávez!
From your point of view obviously not a match made in heaven, but, mind you, he is a snappy dresser.
Ms. Gillard, you just don't have a clue, do you? Next you will probably announce that you want to marry Hugo Chávez!
From your point of view obviously not a match made in heaven, but, mind you, he is a snappy dresser.
REVELATIONS
Ahead of this week's elections, the Australian Prime-Minister has finally made a clean breast of it. She has confessed to being an atheist.
Big deal! Who is she trying to shock? Being an atheist today is like belonging to a pentecostal church without the hand-clapping. Now, if she had come out and announced she was born with three breasts, that would have raised an eyebrow or two.
Frankly, Ms. Gillard, there are other aspects of your convictions that should be of more concern to Australians. Please understand, the world doesn't really care about the altar at which you do or do not kneel, and I, personally, am as interested in your religious beliefs as I am in your favourite brand of underwear.
Get a life!
Big deal! Who is she trying to shock? Being an atheist today is like belonging to a pentecostal church without the hand-clapping. Now, if she had come out and announced she was born with three breasts, that would have raised an eyebrow or two.
Frankly, Ms. Gillard, there are other aspects of your convictions that should be of more concern to Australians. Please understand, the world doesn't really care about the altar at which you do or do not kneel, and I, personally, am as interested in your religious beliefs as I am in your favourite brand of underwear.
Get a life!
DEMOCRACY
I believe Democracy to be a political system which, in an imperfect world, is as close to perfection as any human creation can become. Ideally it is also the ultimate guarantor of personal freedom, a concept which, in my humble opinion, should be treasured by every sane human being anywhere on this globe. For that same reason, I am as attached to it as I am to my own heart.
Yet, for all my reverence, I have to concede that it exhibits one major flaw: it guarantees constitutional rights to people whose ideologies, be they political or religious, constitute the very antithesis of the democratic concept, and who, more often than not, actively work to pervert it or even to destroy it. Therefore, political and religious bigots are always mindful of the fact that such rights are a golden highway for the establishment of the most perverse forms of dictatorship that a twisted human mind can conceive.
It is at that point that your freedom and my freedom become irreparably endangered. So, unless we want to risk getting to that point, we must, in all earnest, ask ourselves the following crucial question: until when will Cleopatra continue to allow the viper to bite her bosom?
Yet, for all my reverence, I have to concede that it exhibits one major flaw: it guarantees constitutional rights to people whose ideologies, be they political or religious, constitute the very antithesis of the democratic concept, and who, more often than not, actively work to pervert it or even to destroy it. Therefore, political and religious bigots are always mindful of the fact that such rights are a golden highway for the establishment of the most perverse forms of dictatorship that a twisted human mind can conceive.
It is at that point that your freedom and my freedom become irreparably endangered. So, unless we want to risk getting to that point, we must, in all earnest, ask ourselves the following crucial question: until when will Cleopatra continue to allow the viper to bite her bosom?
Wednesday, 18 August 2010
WHISKY
Scientists have found a way of transforming the by-products of whisky into a biofuel that you can use in a normal car.
Now, I have great respect for men who have the courage to dress in skirts while clutching a bagpipe, but I wouldn't be caught driving a car powered by whisky.
One needs to be sensitive about certain things. Just the smell emanating from the engine might be construed by an innocent law enforcement officer as attempted bribery. And you know how repulsive that very thought is to the average traffic cop...
Now, I have great respect for men who have the courage to dress in skirts while clutching a bagpipe, but I wouldn't be caught driving a car powered by whisky.
One needs to be sensitive about certain things. Just the smell emanating from the engine might be construed by an innocent law enforcement officer as attempted bribery. And you know how repulsive that very thought is to the average traffic cop...
MISINFORMED CRITICISM
President Obama is strongly supporting the building of a mosque at Ground Zero.
I know many people have been getting urticaria just from dwelling on that thought for a brief moment. I myself had to consult a dermatologist immediately after the pronouncement.
Nonetheless, I know that a politician's mind is like a deep ocean, vastly inaccessible to normal folk like you and me. Now, after much consideration, I would go so far as to say that there is method in his madness. He wants to turn New York into the Mecca of the Muslim world.
If you find that a bad idea, then just think of the huge advantages the plan would have for the US deficit!
The man is brilliant! Only very, very misunderstood.
I know many people have been getting urticaria just from dwelling on that thought for a brief moment. I myself had to consult a dermatologist immediately after the pronouncement.
Nonetheless, I know that a politician's mind is like a deep ocean, vastly inaccessible to normal folk like you and me. Now, after much consideration, I would go so far as to say that there is method in his madness. He wants to turn New York into the Mecca of the Muslim world.
If you find that a bad idea, then just think of the huge advantages the plan would have for the US deficit!
The man is brilliant! Only very, very misunderstood.
Tuesday, 17 August 2010
PROTECTION
For years, History manuals taught us that the Romans had invaded Gaul to protect the local population from the attacks of the Helvetii. Modern archaeology has proved otherwise. What Julius Caesar really had in mind was the seizure of the some 400 mines that the Gauls exploited at the time.
The Portuguese set about spreading the Christian Gospel around the world. In reality, what interested them was the gold of West Africa and the spices of the Far East. With the colonisation of Brazil, they added slave trade to their missionary efforts.
The Spaniards were devout Catholics too. They were eager not to be outdone in the Christianisation efforts. They spread disease around South America, but the gold and silver from the region maintained their empire at its height for more than a century.
The British wrestled the Cape Colony from the Dutch in order to guarantee a halfway house on the route to the Far East. However, once diamonds and gold had been discovered further inland, they suddenly felt an urge to go and protect the native tribes. In the process, they interned thousands of Afrikaners in concentration camps where they were left do die in the most atrocious conditions. At the time, the word holocaust had yet not come into usage.
The Soviets fomented unrest in the whole of Africa under the guise of liberation. Their real intent was to grab the commodity-rich continent. Unfortunately, the Communist system had impoverished their empire to such an extent that, under Gorbachev, it crumbled naturally from within. In the end, they were unable to profit from their efforts.
The Mafia also offers protection.
The Portuguese set about spreading the Christian Gospel around the world. In reality, what interested them was the gold of West Africa and the spices of the Far East. With the colonisation of Brazil, they added slave trade to their missionary efforts.
The Spaniards were devout Catholics too. They were eager not to be outdone in the Christianisation efforts. They spread disease around South America, but the gold and silver from the region maintained their empire at its height for more than a century.
The British wrestled the Cape Colony from the Dutch in order to guarantee a halfway house on the route to the Far East. However, once diamonds and gold had been discovered further inland, they suddenly felt an urge to go and protect the native tribes. In the process, they interned thousands of Afrikaners in concentration camps where they were left do die in the most atrocious conditions. At the time, the word holocaust had yet not come into usage.
The Soviets fomented unrest in the whole of Africa under the guise of liberation. Their real intent was to grab the commodity-rich continent. Unfortunately, the Communist system had impoverished their empire to such an extent that, under Gorbachev, it crumbled naturally from within. In the end, they were unable to profit from their efforts.
The Mafia also offers protection.
Monday, 16 August 2010
FREEDOM
In South Africa a journalist has been arrested, and the ANC is clamouring for a clampdown on media freedom.
In the meantime, President Zuma has been at pains to justify the government action. In his own words, the press has gone a bit overboard.
Now, Mr. Zuma, please forgive my naiveté. I have heard about black empowerment, but, having five wives, is it not going a bit overboard too? Or is it just called freedom?
In the meantime, President Zuma has been at pains to justify the government action. In his own words, the press has gone a bit overboard.
Now, Mr. Zuma, please forgive my naiveté. I have heard about black empowerment, but, having five wives, is it not going a bit overboard too? Or is it just called freedom?
ANALYSTS
Over the years I have watched financial analysts going about their activity of forecasting market movements. They are never wrong. They are just early with their predictions. Most of the time.
Frankly, I think you are better off going to consult an astrologer. At least, you know you are being lied to, and the fees are definitely much lower.
Frankly, I think you are better off going to consult an astrologer. At least, you know you are being lied to, and the fees are definitely much lower.
Saturday, 14 August 2010
DIAMONDS
It never ceases to amaze me how each day brings its little unexpected surprises. You sit and read the newspaper expecting the trivial, and suddenly there is something that leaves you wide-eyed.
It has now been reported in the world press that, after much prospecting, Zimbabwe does indeed have sizeable reserves of diamonds.
Will Zimbabweans profit from them? I don't think so. My guess is that these gems have probably been found in the subsoil of the presidential palace grounds.
Who says diamonds are just a girl's best friends?
Congratulations, Robert!
It has now been reported in the world press that, after much prospecting, Zimbabwe does indeed have sizeable reserves of diamonds.
Will Zimbabweans profit from them? I don't think so. My guess is that these gems have probably been found in the subsoil of the presidential palace grounds.
Who says diamonds are just a girl's best friends?
Congratulations, Robert!
Friday, 13 August 2010
CARJACKING
Being a victim of a carjacking or having your car impounded by the traffic cops, to me, is pretty much the same: taxation, highway robbery, whatever you want to call it.
On second thoughts, carjacking is preferable. The robbers are usually more polite, there is no paperwork and you don't have to hire another thief to defend you in court.
Think of it! Only advantages!
On second thoughts, carjacking is preferable. The robbers are usually more polite, there is no paperwork and you don't have to hire another thief to defend you in court.
Think of it! Only advantages!
DREAMS
Last night I had a horrible dream in which little green men with one eye in the centre of their foreheads were shooting at Jack Nicholson, who is an actor that I much admire. It was simply too gruesome for words!
So, on the question of aliens, Professor Hawking, we are settled then. I'm ready to concede. Nonetheless, please be kind enough to enlighten me: where did they park their flying saucers?
So, on the question of aliens, Professor Hawking, we are settled then. I'm ready to concede. Nonetheless, please be kind enough to enlighten me: where did they park their flying saucers?
Thursday, 12 August 2010
ALIENS
When Fidel Castro started warning the world about the dangers of an impending nuclear war, I must confess that I did not take him seriously. I figured that, if you sat on your chair for four years, in your red tracksuit, drinking rum and smoking Cuban cigars all day, your brain would probably go into nuclear mode anyway. So I reckoned he was hallucinating again.
Now Professor Stephen Hawking, who has been sitting on his chair for much longer than Fidel, is not only hinting at the possibility of a nuclear war, but also warning that people should, at all costs, avoid contact with aliens.
What conclusion do I draw from all this? Sitting on your chair for too long is definitely not good for you.
Now Professor Stephen Hawking, who has been sitting on his chair for much longer than Fidel, is not only hinting at the possibility of a nuclear war, but also warning that people should, at all costs, avoid contact with aliens.
What conclusion do I draw from all this? Sitting on your chair for too long is definitely not good for you.
TIME
Hugo Chávez believes that he is living in 1917. He has even been distributing red shirts to his followers. He is just saddened by the fact that he cannot find an imperial family to execute.
Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, would like the whole world to become a caliphate in the Middle Ages. He is sure he will be able to accomplish that feat by the use of the nuclear bomb.
Finally, Socialist Europe thinks that it has rebuilt the Roman Empire and that its citizens should be slaves who work full-time just to support an ever-growing state machine.
Is the world mad or is time travel not merely science fiction?
Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, would like the whole world to become a caliphate in the Middle Ages. He is sure he will be able to accomplish that feat by the use of the nuclear bomb.
Finally, Socialist Europe thinks that it has rebuilt the Roman Empire and that its citizens should be slaves who work full-time just to support an ever-growing state machine.
Is the world mad or is time travel not merely science fiction?
Saturday, 7 August 2010
HUGONOMICS
There was a time when a man would bite a coin to verify the quality of its metal. These days, of course, it would be unthinkable for anyone to bite a dollar note, even if that person knew that it had been printed on the orders of Mr. Bernanke. Or perhaps exactly because of that knowledge. He wouldn't bother.
I suspect that the reason why people developed that unhealthy practice is that very often, during the Middle Ages, kings would recall the coins in circulation, diminish the amount of gold in them, add more base metal to the alloy and throw them back in circulation. The exercise served a double purpose: it would cheapen the royal debt and impose a hidden tax on the subjects. As higher levels of inflation were usually the consequence, populations would often riot, for even a peasant is able to realise when he is being taken for a ride, unless he is unfortunate enough to have been born with only two eyes and digestive tube.
The best example of the situation to which I am alluding, in the Middle Ages, is the reign of Philip IV of France. Heavily indebted because of mindless expenditure, his initial plan involved expelling the Jews and seizing their property. When that proved insufficient for his needs, he went on to debase the currency. As, at that point, he still owed vast sums of money to the Knights Templar, he hatched a crafty plan to have them tried for heresy and burnt at the stake. In that way he managed to simultaneously wipe out the creditor and take possession of his property.
I'm sure Philip would have continued to create havoc, if he hadn't died exactly one year after he had ordered the execution of Jacques de Molay, the Grand Master of the Templars. Legend has it that, at the stake, de Molay put a curse on him.
At school I leant that History does not repeat itself. Sometimes I wonder.
Take, for example, the case of Hugo Chávez. He has nationalised right, left and centre. He has debased the currency. He is now inventing a war against Colombia, under the cover of nationalism, but presumably to take control of the profitable drug trade. The only difference is perhaps that his peasants, all dressed up in red shirts, cheer him up. But then, it is also true that one cannot help having been born with only two brain cells.
It shows you. You must never underestimate a man. When I first saw Chávez on television, I thought he was just a puppet manipulated by an able ventriloquist. Now I realise that the man knows History backwards.
Yet, I ask: is there nobody that is prepared to put a curse on this bozo?
I suspect that the reason why people developed that unhealthy practice is that very often, during the Middle Ages, kings would recall the coins in circulation, diminish the amount of gold in them, add more base metal to the alloy and throw them back in circulation. The exercise served a double purpose: it would cheapen the royal debt and impose a hidden tax on the subjects. As higher levels of inflation were usually the consequence, populations would often riot, for even a peasant is able to realise when he is being taken for a ride, unless he is unfortunate enough to have been born with only two eyes and digestive tube.
The best example of the situation to which I am alluding, in the Middle Ages, is the reign of Philip IV of France. Heavily indebted because of mindless expenditure, his initial plan involved expelling the Jews and seizing their property. When that proved insufficient for his needs, he went on to debase the currency. As, at that point, he still owed vast sums of money to the Knights Templar, he hatched a crafty plan to have them tried for heresy and burnt at the stake. In that way he managed to simultaneously wipe out the creditor and take possession of his property.
I'm sure Philip would have continued to create havoc, if he hadn't died exactly one year after he had ordered the execution of Jacques de Molay, the Grand Master of the Templars. Legend has it that, at the stake, de Molay put a curse on him.
At school I leant that History does not repeat itself. Sometimes I wonder.
Take, for example, the case of Hugo Chávez. He has nationalised right, left and centre. He has debased the currency. He is now inventing a war against Colombia, under the cover of nationalism, but presumably to take control of the profitable drug trade. The only difference is perhaps that his peasants, all dressed up in red shirts, cheer him up. But then, it is also true that one cannot help having been born with only two brain cells.
It shows you. You must never underestimate a man. When I first saw Chávez on television, I thought he was just a puppet manipulated by an able ventriloquist. Now I realise that the man knows History backwards.
Yet, I ask: is there nobody that is prepared to put a curse on this bozo?
Wednesday, 4 August 2010
CHATEAUBRIAND
When Chateaubriand wrote his Memoirs from Beyond the Grave, he had intended to have them published 50 years after his death. Unfortunately life never turns out to be as we plan it and financial woes forced him to look for an editor much before his final demise. In his own words he had to mortgage his tomb.
Now Fidel Castro is publishing his memoirs. Could it be that he is also hard up for cash?
Now Fidel Castro is publishing his memoirs. Could it be that he is also hard up for cash?
Monday, 2 August 2010
LANGUAGE
After it became clear that China was overtaking Japan in economic terms, some people started urging me to learn Chinese. I think they meant well.
Don't get me wrong. I have as much respect for the Chinese as I do for any other human being, with the exception perhaps of politicians and lawyers, who, by definition, do not qualify for that category anyway.
The crux of the matter is that it is not an easy language to learn. There is the whole question of tone, and I'm too old to try and reproduce those sounds. If I slant my eyes any further, I'm scared I'll go blind. Have you ever looked at a Chinese? I mean, properly?
I think I'll give it a miss, fellows. Perhaps I'm making a mistake. If God in eternity only speaks Chinese, I might live to regret it.
Don't get me wrong. I have as much respect for the Chinese as I do for any other human being, with the exception perhaps of politicians and lawyers, who, by definition, do not qualify for that category anyway.
The crux of the matter is that it is not an easy language to learn. There is the whole question of tone, and I'm too old to try and reproduce those sounds. If I slant my eyes any further, I'm scared I'll go blind. Have you ever looked at a Chinese? I mean, properly?
I think I'll give it a miss, fellows. Perhaps I'm making a mistake. If God in eternity only speaks Chinese, I might live to regret it.
THE GREAT AMERICAN DREAM
These days it has become fashionable to criticise banks for the economic woes of the world. In fact, I would go so far as to say that, unless you vigorously join in the chorus, you are almost regarded as an accomplice to their alleged misdemeanours. So bank-bashing is absolutely de rigueur.
Evidence of this is the degrading spectacle of bankers being dragged by the short and curlies in front of Congress and the ominous sight of Obama's ever accusing finger pointing at them, as if threatening, at any moment, to gouge out their eyes. Bankers find themselves, so to speak, between a rock and a hard place. Risky profession, I would say, qualifying, if we were living in Greece, for disability pension at age 50. Not much else you can do in life once they have taken away your courage and your vision.
Now, make no mistake, I don't regard bankers as celestial beings inhabiting lofty places, but, by the same token, I can't depict them as little red angels with horns and goat beards. The present anti-bank campaign rests on an oversimplification of the problem that serves exclusively the pernicious designs of populism.
You only have to look at the historical evolution of interest rates in the US to realise that the roots of the problem lie elsewhere. From about 2002 the Federal Reserve set interest rates at ridiculously low levels. That was done partly to offset the effects of the recession and partly to promote the social policy of the political utopia known as the American Dream, whereby every citizen should own his own house.
Well, low interest rates have two undesirable consequences. Firstly, they encourage individuals and businesses to leverage themselves to unreasonable levels in the erroneous belief that asset values rise in a geometric progression. That is how bubbles are created. Secondly, they provide no incentive for cash rich corporations to maintain their money in the bank, and thus force them on the path of acquisitions. The result of this process is labour rationalisation.
As unemployment rises and private consumption shrinks, property prices also decline. More and more people find that they are in serious financial trouble. The same banks that were told that they should be sympathetic to individuals who, rationally, couldn't even afford a tent, never mind a house, become laden with toxic assets and are forced to foreclose. Unfortunately there are no buyers in the market for those repossessed homes. Some banks go bankrupt, if their business model was based on borrowing short and lending long. If you add to this a government that has embarked on several utopian adventures, run up a huge deficit and is now competing for funds in the credit markets, you have the makings of a daunting economic mess.
In fine, oftentimes dreams are just that – dreams. Sometimes they turn out to be nightmares. Yet, sin always lives next door.
Evidence of this is the degrading spectacle of bankers being dragged by the short and curlies in front of Congress and the ominous sight of Obama's ever accusing finger pointing at them, as if threatening, at any moment, to gouge out their eyes. Bankers find themselves, so to speak, between a rock and a hard place. Risky profession, I would say, qualifying, if we were living in Greece, for disability pension at age 50. Not much else you can do in life once they have taken away your courage and your vision.
Now, make no mistake, I don't regard bankers as celestial beings inhabiting lofty places, but, by the same token, I can't depict them as little red angels with horns and goat beards. The present anti-bank campaign rests on an oversimplification of the problem that serves exclusively the pernicious designs of populism.
You only have to look at the historical evolution of interest rates in the US to realise that the roots of the problem lie elsewhere. From about 2002 the Federal Reserve set interest rates at ridiculously low levels. That was done partly to offset the effects of the recession and partly to promote the social policy of the political utopia known as the American Dream, whereby every citizen should own his own house.
Well, low interest rates have two undesirable consequences. Firstly, they encourage individuals and businesses to leverage themselves to unreasonable levels in the erroneous belief that asset values rise in a geometric progression. That is how bubbles are created. Secondly, they provide no incentive for cash rich corporations to maintain their money in the bank, and thus force them on the path of acquisitions. The result of this process is labour rationalisation.
As unemployment rises and private consumption shrinks, property prices also decline. More and more people find that they are in serious financial trouble. The same banks that were told that they should be sympathetic to individuals who, rationally, couldn't even afford a tent, never mind a house, become laden with toxic assets and are forced to foreclose. Unfortunately there are no buyers in the market for those repossessed homes. Some banks go bankrupt, if their business model was based on borrowing short and lending long. If you add to this a government that has embarked on several utopian adventures, run up a huge deficit and is now competing for funds in the credit markets, you have the makings of a daunting economic mess.
In fine, oftentimes dreams are just that – dreams. Sometimes they turn out to be nightmares. Yet, sin always lives next door.
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